The Data

Given that retrenchment often occurs as a result of severe funding or enrollment declines, examining IPEDS finance and enrollment data for a set of colleges known to have gone through retrenchment—or are anticipating it in the near future—may help to identify warning signs that colleges may be subject to retrenchment or restructuring events in the future.

Enrollment

Table 3 displays the full-time equivalent (FTE) student enrollment trends for the 17 colleges and overall enrollments at two-year colleges between 2012 and 2021. 14 Annual Reports and Information Staff (Annual Reports), Undergraduate Enrollment. (2023). National Center for Education Statistics. nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cha/undergrad-enrollment Go to reference The green bar represents the high point and the red bar, the low.

Notably, the most recent year, 2021, was the low point for the vast majority of colleges. Over the 10 years, enrollments at all two-year institutions decreased 35 percent; across the 17 colleges examined, the enrollment decline was similar at 34 percent.

• 14 Annual Reports and Information Staff (Annual Reports), Undergraduate Enrollment. (2023). National Center for Education Statistics. nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cha/undergrad-enrollment

However, the majority of colleges examined—10 of 17—experienced severe enrollment declines and at a much higher rate than the average. For example, Blue Mountain Community College’s enrollment declined 56 percent; Tidewater and Mt. Hood Community Colleges, 49 percent; and Erie Community College, 46 percent. Notably, Community College of Aurora, which did not cite enrollment declines or financial difficulties as a reason to restructure, experienced an enrollment decline of only 9 percent. Community College of Allegheny County, which also cited revitalization as a reason to restructure, had an enrollment decline of 43 percent over the 10 years—well above average. Volunteer State Community College’s enrollment declined by only 5 percent but their retrenchment plans were cited as part of a statewide event.

Revenue

Total revenues (from operational and non-operational sources) declined an average of 20 percent in constant dollars (corrected for inflation) across the 17 colleges, with 14 of the 17 colleges experiencing decreased revenues (See Table 4). Revenues fluctuated over the years for many colleges but were most often lowest in the most recent one or two years. Tidewater Community College experienced the largest decline at 50 percent, with revenues steadily trending downward over the 10 years.

Appropriations

Community colleges rely on governmental funding as a large source of funding. In FY 2020–2021, 45 percent of community colleges’ revenues were derived from federal, state, and local funding sources; this was up from 41 percent in 2010–2011. 15 Total revenue of public degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by source of revenue and level of institution: Selected fiscal years, 2007-08 through 2020-21 (Table 333.10.). (n.d.). National Center for Education Statistics. Retrieved June 15, 2023. nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d22/tables/dt22_333.10.asp Go to reference Declines in funding from such significant sources can adversely affect a college.

• 15 Total revenue of public degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by source of revenue and level of institution: Selected fiscal years, 2007-08 through 2020-21 (Table 333.10.). (n.d.). National Center for Education Statistics. Retrieved June 15, 2023. nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d22/tables/dt22_333.10.asp

Notably, constant dollar governmental appropriations increased at the 17 colleges by an average of 1 percent over 10 years; however, governmental appropriations increased an average of 8 percent across all two-year colleges (See Table 5). Change in governmental appropriations across the 17 colleges varied: One of the 17 colleges—Volunteer State—experienced a decline in constant dollar appropriations of about 45 percent while Linn-Benton, on the other hand, had a 45 percent increase.

When computed on an FTE student basis, all 17 colleges saw increases. This could be due to declining enrollments, particularly given the sharp enrollment decrease in the most recent years.

Revenues Minus Expenditures

Table 6 presents the total revenues—revenues from operational and non-operational sources including governmental appropriations—minus

expenditures. Red bars depict the years that the colleges operated with a deficit. Of the 17 colleges, Jackson State and Volunteer State are the only colleges that were not in a deficit in any of the 10 years. However, City College of San Francisco and Erie Community College operated at or near a deficit of a significant magnitude in most years. In 2020–2021, Mt. Hood Community College had the largest deficit, more than $10 million.

What Happened to Faculty?

About 810 public two-year colleges reported faculty counts consistently from 2011–2012 to 2021– 2022. The average change in the number of full-time faculty reported by these colleges decreased by about 5 percent over the decade. The largest decline in the number of faculty reported was at Texas Southmost College, which reported 408 faculty in 2011–2012 and 99 in 2021–2022, a 75 percent decrease. Two- thirds of the colleges, 66 percent, had fewer full-time faculty in 2021– 2022 than 2011–2012; of those with decreases, the average decline was nearly 18 percent. 16 ASA Research analysis of IPEDS Enrollment data, various years. Go to reference

As displayed in Table 7, the number of full- time faculty (9/10- and 11/12-month) declined in 12 of the 17 colleges between 2011–2012 and 2021–2022. Further, the low point for the majority of colleges is the most recent year, 2021–2022. Across the 17 colleges, there were 17 percent fewer full-time faculty in 2021–2022 than 2011–2012 17 Computation reflects a weighted average of faculty, i.e., the loss in the number of faculty, rather than a simple average of the percentage change for each college, which is a 7 percent decrease. Go to reference —a similar percentage as seen in all community colleges nationally that

experienced a decline. Including only those 12 colleges with losses in faculty positions, there were 21 percent fewer faculty in 2021–2022 compared with 2011–2012.

• 16 ASA Research analysis of IPEDS Enrollment data, various years.
• 17 Computation reflects a weighted average of faculty, i.e., the loss in the number of faculty, rather than a simple average of the percentage change for each college, which is a 7 percent decrease.

City College of San Francisco took the largest hit of the 17, both in percentage and number, with 320 fewer faculty in 2021–2022 than 2011–2012, a loss of 40 percent. Community College of Aurora had the largest increase in the number of faculty of the time period (33 percent) for a total of 55 faculty in 2021–2022. Community College of Aurora was one of three that cited their restructuring was due to a revitalization effort rather than financial distress or enrollment declines.